Panel Paper: Gross Employment, Job Flows, and the Role of Education In the Great Recession

Friday, November 9, 2012 : 10:05 AM
Mencken (Sheraton Baltimore City Center Hotel)

*Names in bold indicate Presenter

John Abowd, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University and Lars Vilhuber, Cornell University

Using gross flows of workers into and out of employment, we investigate the composition of flows in non-recessionary periods as well as in the Great Recession of 2008-2009. In particular, we use gross flows at highly detailed geographic and demographic levels to assess whether particular demographic groups are less affected by the sharp changes in gross flows during recessions, and whether such effects are robust across detailed geographic areas.

Following Abowd and Vilhuber (Journal of Econometrics, 2011), we develop a internally consistent measure of national gross worker and job flows with demographic detail. In particular, we expand on the earlier attempt by providing the first estimate of consistent worker and job flows by age and educational attainment. We provide a comparison to existing job and worker flows derived from several independent sources (CPS, BED, JOLTS). We then identify particular patterns in the national data we develop that highlight certain differential effects. Finally, we assess whether such patterns, observed at the national level, are present in all or only a subset of local labor markets.