*Names in bold indicate Presenter
Estimates from the tax data show that in an expansion year like 2007, 28.0% or 73.3 million individuals under the age of 65 have family ACA-income below 138% of FPL and 39.7% or 103.9 million individuals have family ACA-income between 138 and 400% of FPL. Our CPS-based estimates, after adjusting the data for tax unit structure and ACA income definitions, shows 25.2% or 66.2 million individuals under the age of 65 with family income below 138% of FPL and 38.7% or 101.4 million individuals with family income between 138 and 400% of FPL. This result suggests that using survey response data yields a higher ACA-income distribution than the administrative tax data, implying that estimates using survey data alone will undercount Medicaid eligibility. Estimates using 2009 data show that during the Great Recession the number of individuals with family ACA-income below 138% of FPL increases by about 5 percentage points or 13 million individuals in the tax data.
Although the CPS undercounts the number of people with family ACA-income below 138% of FPL relative to tax data, it contains detailed health insurance status information. Using the CPS, we find that in 2007 the uninsured comprise about 32% (21.1 million) of the individuals with family ACA-income below 138% of FPL and about 18.1% (18.3 million) of the individuals with family ACA-income between 138% and 400% of FPL. The uninsured seem to be a sizeable portion of both the Medicaid eligible group and the potential exchange subsidy pool under the ACA legislation.
- LuriepearceFPL paper Sep 2012.pdf (672.6KB)