*Names in bold indicate Presenter
instrumental variables to address the fact that those allowed benefits are a selected sam-
ple. We find that benefit receipt reduces labor force participation by 26 percentage points
three years after a disability determination decision, although the reduction is smaller for
those over age 55, college graduates, and those with mental illness. OLS estimates are
similar to instrumental variables estimates. We also find that over 60% of those denied
benefits by an Administrative Law Judge are subsequently allowed benefits within 10
years, showing that most applicants apply, re-apply, and appeal until they get benefits.
Next, we estimate a dynamic programming model of optimal labor supply and appeals
choices. Consistent with the law, we assume that people cannot work and appeal at the
same time. We match labor supply, appeals, and subsequent allowance decisions pre-
dicted by the model to the decisions observed in the data. We use the model to predict
labor supply responses to benefit denial when there is no option to appeal. We find that
if there was no appeals option, those denied benefits are 43 percentage points more likely
to work. Our results suggest that many of those denied benefits not because they are
unable to work, but because they remain out of the labor force in order to appeal their
benefit denial.
Full Paper:
- DI_AEJ61.pdf (414.7KB)