*Names in bold indicate Presenter
In a previous study we found that much of the world will probably achieve rapid declines in WASH mortality and associated foregone gains from expanding coverage with water and sanitation, but that Sub-Saharan Africa is a notable exception (Jeuland et al. 2012). In order to more fully explore the projected results for Sub-Saharan Africa, we grouped countries according to broad economic classifications proposed by Radlet 2010: emerging economies (high GDP growth), threshold economies, oil-exporting, and all others. All of these country classifications have increasing trends in total population without piped water and sanitation and therefore deaths due to WASH-related diseases, although magnitudes differ. Oil-exporting countries have lower water and sanitation coverage rates compared to emerging economies. This difference exists despite considerably higher urbanization in oil-exporting countries. We find that total WASH deaths and associated gains foregone are predicted to be similar in emerging economies and oil-exporting countries. This similarity is partially due to slightly greater population among the emerging economies. Thus, despite lower WASH mortality rates in emerging economies, total WASH health losses are comparable.
A crucial question is what can be done to accelerate a downturn in the ‘peak’ of unrealized economic gains related to WASH, i.e. how can some of these gains be captured before 2050? Expected economic growth alone does not appear to be sufficient to correct the problem of rising future WASH mortality in SSA. In this paper we use the simulation model to identify combinations of model parameters that would be associated with an earlier downturn in ‘peak’ gains foregone in SSA.