Panel Paper: Training Program Impact Estimates and the Onset of the Great Recession

Thursday, November 7, 2013 : 4:00 PM
Thomas Salon (Washington Marriott)

*Names in bold indicate Presenter

Peter Mueser, University of Missouri and Carolyn Heinrich, University of Texas, Austin
In the context of the Great Recession (the near economic free fall experienced in late 2008 and 2009), we examine how the impacts of training shifted during a period when theory suggests they might have the greatest potential to improve individual and societal well-being.  Using particularly rich data from the state of Missouri for participants in the WIA Adult and Dislocated Worker and the Trade Adjustment Assistance programs over the period 2007-2010, we will estimate program impacts, comparing outcomes for participants receiving training in one of these programs with a comparison group of individuals receiving only Wagner-Peyser services or UI benefits.  Individuals who have the same demographic characteristics, prior employment and earnings histories, and local labor markets will be matched to maximize the likelihood that the estimates reflect causal training impacts. Making comparisons of impacts before and after onset of the recession will allow us to test the claim that the benefits of training increase during recessionary periods.  If true, the policy importance of such a result is obvious insofar as it identifies a set of activities that governments can usefully undertake during economic downturns to mitigate negative effects and pave a pathway to stronger future growth.  We will also examine the methodological question of what kind of comparison group is most appropriate (given that ours will be the first study with access to both Wagner-Peyser participants and UI benefits groups), which should provide guidance for future state and federal evaluations of training program effectiveness.