According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, child protective services agencies received 3.3 million child abuse referrals alleging abuse against 5.9 million children in 2010.  Understanding the causes of child abuse and developing clear policy interventions is incredibly important given the human, social, and economic costs of child abuse.  Due in large part to the Great Recession, the link between unemployment and child maltreatment has received increased attention; however, despite its potential importance and saliency, the relationship between community unemployment and child abuse is not well understood. 

This paper seeks to contribute to our understanding of the relationship between aggregate unemployment rates and child abuse rates by using novel data set obtained from the New York State Office of Children and Family Services. The data include quarterly abuse counts for all screened-in referrals and substantiated referrals for all counties in New York from 2000-2010, a time period with substantial variation in unemployment.  The data disaggregate abuse sub-types (neglect, physical, sexual, emotional, and alcohol and drug related abuse) and age groups (children under six and children ages six and over).  Therefore, in addition to being able to explore the primary relationship between unemployment rates and child abuse, the richness of the data allow me to address four additional questions that are under-studied in the current literature: (1) Do changes in the unemployment rate affect the sub-types of child abuse differently?, (2) Do changes in the unemployment rate have differential effects for children under six versus children six and over?, (3) What is the effect of long-term or persistent unemployment on child abuse?, and (4) Do changes in the unemployment rate have differential effects for children living in counties with a low population density versus children living in counties with a high population density?

Preliminary results suggest a surprising finding: increases in unemployment rates are associated with declines in child abuse rates.  However, when unemployment is persistently high, I observe a rise in child abuse rates.  High unemployment rates correspond to higher neglect, emotional abuse, and alcohol and drug related incidents among young children and are correlated with physical abuse and alcohol and drug related referrals among older children.  Volatile unemployment rates are associated with increases in emotional and alcohol and drug related substantiated referrals for both age groups.

Children in low population density counties experience both higher rates of referral and higher substantiation rates; though the types of referrals made to child protective services do not vary by county density, (e.g., neglect allegations comprise about 70 percent of referrals in both types of counties).  Results suggest that child abuse responds differently to changes in the unemployment rate depending on the population density of the county.  In contrast to the full sample, results imply a positive relationship between child abuse and unemployment rates, but the coefficients are not significant.  However, persistently high and volatile unemployment are associated with statically significant increases in child abuse rates, especially for neglect, emotional abuse, and alcohol and drug related referrals.