Revenue Uncertainty & Decremental Budgeting in Special Purpose Local Governments
*Names in bold indicate Presenter
To advance policy process literature on decremental budgeting politics with the question of how states use evidence-based policy to respond to fiscal stress, a model of determinant factors of the 14,000 teachers who lost their jobs under a reduction in force (RIF) through the Great Recession is tested. A population enumeration of all Pennsylvania school districts (N=499) with over 25 demand, cost, socio-economic, fiscal capacity, institutional, and political factors will provide evidence of which factors motivated the decision to cut teachers. This will be conducted with a generalized negative binomial count model discussed in Hilbe (2014), to both satisfy assumptions of the distribution of teacher cuts but also allow for a quantile variant to assess cutback heterogeneity. This model serves as the first to look at teacher RIFs in response to fiscal stress from the count of teacher layoffs across a panel of time. It will determine whether cuts through the Great Recession can be attributed exclusively to rational systems budgeting due to declining revenues and expenditure cuts or to an open systems perspective which incorporates institutional and political factors. It is also the first paper to tie the cutback budgeting literature and decremental politics literature to understanding whether policymakers employed evidence-based management in seeking cuts which reduced long-term strain on the education finance system.