Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

High-stakes accountability policies refer to the practice of evaluation teachers, schools, and/or students on the basis of students’ performance on standardized exams aimed at evaluating student achievement; many states adopted such policies in the 1990s. Because the conditions and quality of primary and secondary (K-12) schooling have been shown to affect postsecondary success, there is reason to believe that these changes in K-12 education systems affect long-run student outcomes. Educational attainment is a critical determinant of long-run socioeconomic outcomes, and understanding the causes of the emerging gaps in college success (differences by socioeconomic status and gender in college attendance, persistence, and completion rates) is crucial for policymakers and educators seeking to devise policies that equalize educational opportunity and facilitate upward socioeconomic mobility.

While extensive research has been done to analyze the effect of these policies on student achievement and performance during K-12 schooling, there exists a gap between K-12 and postsecondary literatures. Moreover, the effect of such policies on outcomes beyond K-12 education is largely untouched, despite the likelihood that these policies affect long-run student outcomes. Thus, an important policy-relevant question remains: Do these policies impact long-run socioeconomic outcomes?

The proposed paper investigates the potential effects of state-level evidence-based K-12 accountability policies on college-going students’ educational outcomes, such as ease of adjustment to college, academic performance (i.e., GPA), college course taking, the probability of first-year retention and timely completion, and the types of post-secondary institutions students initially attended. Additionally, further investigation is done to determine whether the effects on those outcomes vary by observed student characteristics (e.g., parents’ educational attainment, household income, race, gender).

The proposed paper quantitatively analyzes the Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS), a longitudinal survey that follows national representative samples of three first-time college-goer cohorts: those who first attended a postsecondary institution in the 1989-90, 1995-96, and 2003-04 academic years. In addition to the baseline data collected at the end of students’ first years, the BPS conducted follow-up surveys at the end of students’ third and sixth years after entry into postsecondary education. The proposed paper employs a DD style research design that aims to identify the casual affect of state’s high-stakes accountability policies on an array of college goers’ postsecondary outcomes. This method is slightly augmented to measure the varied effects between the aforementioned student characteristics.

We find that there are no statistically significant increases in first-year GPA, rate of timely completion, or labor market success for students under an accountability system for 7-12 years (high-intensity); the only statistically significant increase for those under 4-6 years of treatment is the rate of timely completion. This is troubling from a policy standpoint, as accountability policies, especially those at the federal level (e.g., NCLB), have fundamentally changed our K-12 education system. These changes have seemingly not improved outcomes for students that policymakers should care about, such as PSE academic performance and labor market success. Further analysis for other outcome variables (e.g., marital status and earnings) is in the process and will be completed by the presentation date.