Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Is gentrification good or bad for the urban poor? Despite qualitative accounts and demographic changes, quantitative studies generally do not find evidence that residents in gentrifying neighborhoods are more likely to be residentially displaced. We contribute to the debate by considering broader patterns of residential mobility into and out of gentrifying neighborhoods. We draw on a unique large-scale consumer credit database of residents in Philadelphia from 2002-2014. After accounting for differences in mobility patterns, low-credit score movers from gentrifying neighborhoods, primarily those from majority black neighborhoods, are more likely to move into lower quality neighborhoods within the city compared to similar movers out of nongentrifying neighborhoods. Further, residents with low credit scores are increasingly more likely to move into low-income, nongentrifying neighborhoods relative to other types of neighborhoods over time as neighborhoods gentrify throughout the city. Together, the results demonstrate how gentrification is both directly and indirectly associated with the concentration of disadvantaged residents into disadvantaged neighborhoods, contributing to the persistence of poor, urban neighborhoods in Philadelphia.