Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

We will use detailed data on household income to track household location on an annual basis to assess whether low-income households disproportionately move out of rail transit neighborhoods after transit service begins.  In doing so, we will examine whether new light rail catalyzes a process of house price and rent increases that pushes low-income residents out of transit-oriented neighborhoods, and if the answer is yes, where those low-income residents move.  This information is crucial to understanding current debates regarding light rail transit and displacement, and is also necessary to assess the sustainability of rail transit systems in large metropolitan areas.

One of the most important yet under-studied rail transit issues is its impact on displacement of low-income households from transit-oriented neighborhoods.  With affordable housing in short supply in many of the same cities that are aggressively building rail transit, displacement of low income residents has become a key policy debate. The question of income levels of residents living near transit stations is fundamental for understanding transit ridership and the environmental impacts of rail transit.  Because low-income persons use transit more and drive less than persons of higher income, if transit gentrifies neighborhoods by displacing low-income persons it stands to reason that the impact of the rail system on sustainability may be less than if low-income households are not displaced after rail stations open. Previous research on gentrification has highlighted the importance of who moves into and who is displaced from gentrifying neighborhoods, but research has not specifically correlated these changes with rail transit. In summary, there is very little evidence on the migration of households after rail is built. 

This project uses geocoded California income tax information to identify household residential location and household income levels to track those households over time to assess whether low-income households migrate out of transit-oriented neighborhoods at disproportionate rates after rail service begins and, if they do, where those households move.  Our research will shed light on this issue in four innovative ways: (1) by tracking individual households by income, (2) by analyzing household mobility before and after rail investment occurs (station opening), (3) by developing a like for like counterfactual from the same dataset, and (4) by analyzing displacement trends at frequencies as often as annual over several years.