Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

One of the largest changes in social norms in recent years has been the dramatic shift in attitudes toward LGBT individuals in the U.S. and the accompanying rise in the number of Americans who have openly come out. Despite the salience of this movement and the substantial welfare implications it has had for a significant fraction of American society, there has been relatively little research into what causal factors may have contributed to the movement’s success. To this aim, we develop a model of stigma with Schelling-style tipping dynamics. Regions may be stuck in equilibria with low LGBT support and few openly gay individuals. These equilibria can be escaped via trigger events, that by causing even a small number of individuals to display their support for LGBT causes, can cause more individuals to come out, leading to more support, etc. We then evaluate our model with a large dataset and discuss how such positive feedback loops can be a powerful force for shifting norms on a national level.