Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Research has shown that taking remedial mathematics significantly reduces the likelihood of graduation for four-year college entrants.[1] Moreover, a recent randomized controlled trial at the City University of New York (CUNY) provided evidence that many students who take remedial math courses would be capable of passing regular college-credit math courses.[2] Therefore, understanding which factors accurately predict college readiness and deciding on corresponding criteria to place students into math remediation is a critical task for universities. Yet, many current placement criteria (SAT scores, placement tests) have proven to be relatively weak indicators of college performance.[3]

We use a multiple-measure approach to predict performance in college-level math courses and persistence to a second year among CUNY freshmen who were previously students in New York City public schools. We incorporate several additional measures of preparation other than test scores: high school math course grades, timing of high school math courses (time between high school math courses and college math courses), and high school math Regents exam scores adjusted for the time between when the score was achieved and when a college course was taken.

We draw on data from the New York City Partnership for College Readiness and Success, a researcher-practitioner partnership designed to produce high-quality research that informs the actions of both the New York City Department of Education and CUNY. Linking high school and college records, the data provide detailed individual-level information on demographic characteristics, high school course and exam-taking, and college outcomes. CUNY has recently decided to review its placement policies and results from this analysis will help inform decisions over which students should be placed into credit-bearing vs. remedial math courses.

Based on findings from California, we expect multiple measures to refine the accuracy of current placement methods. One analysis found that not taking mathematics in grade 12 was a significant predictor of placing below college-level math for California community college students.[4] An evaluation of a multiple-measures approach in the community college placement process in Los Angeles found that students placed into a higher-level course based on prior math background and high school GPA performed as well as peers placed solely based on a placement test score.[5]