Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Over the next two decades the aging of the large baby boom cohort will greatly expand the number of elderly households in need of affordable housing, accessibility features in the home, supports in the community, and housing that is integrated with supportive services.  A key issue for both policy makers and the housing industry is what the magnitude of demand will be for these different types of housing and supportive services to order to gauge the supply response that will be needed to meet this potential demand. This paper will present estimates of the expected growth in number of elderly households by 2035 by tenure, income, and disability status.  Current propensities to live in different residential settings (i.e., owner occupied, rental housing, independent living, assisted living, or nursing homes) for each of these household categories will be used to estimate the potential demand for housing and supportive services of different types. A wide variety of data sources will be used to develop these estimates: household projections will be based on Census Bureau population estimates and headship rates estimated from Decennial Census and American Community Survey data; household financial status will be derived from analysis of Survey of Consumer Finances, the Health and Retirement Study, and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics; the incidence of disability status will be derived from analysis of the Health and Retirement Study and the American Community Survey; the propensity for different residential choices will be derived from analysis of the Health and Retirement Study, the American Housing Survey, and the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics. The paper will conclude with a discussion of the implications for housing policy and private housing supply of these demand estimates.