Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

This paper provides an overview of Seattle’s 2014 ordinance mandating a gradual increase to a $15 minimum wage. It then outlines a research agenda for a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of this ordinance, to be executed concurrently with the phase-in period. The evaluation is using original data on area prices, and on employer and worker perspectives, as well as secondary survey and state administrative data. This paper presents results from a series of investigations of consumer prices, including intensive field collection from grocery stores and small businesses. Most investigations use difference-in-difference methodology comparing trends in Seattle to those in nearby jurisdictions. Results show no statistically significant impact of Seattle’s initial increase to an $11 minimum wage on consumer prices, though estimates are imprecise enough to be consistent with the small positive effects observed in other studies and suggestive of a more concentrated impact in the restaurant industry.