Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

When the Great Recession hit in 2008, the expectation among many was that worsening economic conditions would lead to substantial increases in homelessness.  After all, the worldwide financial downturn had a housing bubble at its roots, and the subsequent rises in foreclosures and diminishing mortgage financing both disrupted housing stability.    Furthermore, losses in family income and higher unemployment among lower income households, combined with austerity measures in public funding, all forebode burgeoning challenges for those at the bottom of the income bracket.   

Homelessness is defined (and measured) differently across (and sometimes within) countries making comparisons difficult.  However, every jurisdiction recognizes those living on the streets and in public places -- the rough sleepers, sans abris, or poblacion callejera -- as part of their definition.   And although measurement approaches vary across localities, they tend to stay constant over time for any one place.   This allows us to look at trends in street homelessness as measured against each place over time.

Looking at the largest cities in the 20 largest OECD countries, we find that several cities have experienced rises in street homelessness from 2005 to 2014, as expected.  In some cities, the pattern is mixed -- with no clear increase but rather steady or at times slightly decreasing numbers.   The last group of cities actually experienced mostly declines in street homeless following the recession.   Part of the story with homelessness generally, but particularly with street homelessness, is the lack of good data.   We find that a number of cities performed only one estimate, or none, over the period.     

How have the policy responses been different across these cities?  The answers are not as clear cut as one might think and thus leaves us with a more complicated picture of the causes and consequences of street homelessness.

Overall, the direst predictions failed to materialize not only in the U.S., but also in many European and other developed OECD countries.  Public service systems have been strained, but street homelessness still decreased or stayed constant in many large cities.   We discuss the implications for future practice and research, especially in light of growing immigrant populations and worsening economic headwinds.