Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Disparities between groups with regards to access to public resources such as education, is often perceived to be a symptom of discrimination against less affluent or powerful groups. The consequences of these inequalities are thought to manifest themselves into instances of social instability ranging from protests to violent conflicts. Although education generally has a pacifying effect on conflict, exclusion along groups lines can often provide conditions through which collective discontent can arise, leading to intergroup conflict. As a process that is inherently social, political and economic, education and schooling can both create inequalities as well as mitigate them. This research seeks to provide an understanding of how horizontal inequalities in education can lead to social instability, proxied by the onset of different types of social and civil conflict events. The research investigates this relationship through regression analysis of educational attainment data, disaggregated by ethnoreligious grouping, and data on social and civil conflicts over the same time period. In the last five years, the world has become more violent than prior trends had previously suggested it would be, with death tolls in all forms of organised violence rapidly rising from a period of considerably low levels. Notably, this is still within the context of a much more peaceful period in world history, relative to the Cold War period directly preceding it (1946-1988). This ‘peace’ however is measured in the death tolls from events of organised violence such as state based conflict, non-state conflict and one-sided violence. It is therefore worth considering whether long-term declines in conventional armed conflicts are being countered by increases in other forms of violence. Policy makers and peace-builders need an analysis of the factors that drive trends in conflict, in order to prepare for any looming threats. By looking at education inequality along group lines this research provides the evidence-base to do this.

Keywords: Horizontal Education Inequalites, Social Instability, Conflict, Horizontal Inequality