Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Several studies explore the nexus between migration, climate change, and other environmental challenges. However, there is limited investigation using both qualitative and quantitative methods in establishing the above nexus based on households’ risk perception. Using that approach, we find that avoiding climate and environmentally-induced migration requires pro-activeness in reducing households’ risk and enhancing their adaptive capacity. Anchored on the New Economics Theory, households in The Gambia’s Capital city, Banjul are employing migration, as an early avoidant behaviour strategy to avert devastating climate change impacts confronting the island city. Accordingly, findings of our study show that: (a) 64% of current households in Banjul express positive Willingness to Migrate (WTM) any time before 2050, (b) on average, current households in Banjul are 33% more likely to migrate, if they perceive that climate and environmentally-induced factors are primarily responsible for the city's high out-migration rate, ceteris paribus; and (c) over 30,000 residents in Banjul are at risk of becoming Environmentally Displaced Persons (EDPs) with 1.0m global mean sea level rise by 2100, if no aggressive adaptation is considered now. (d) globally, there are over 60 million EDPs around the world and the figure is projected to be 150-200 million by 2050. Among others, we recommend The Gambia government and current residents in Banjul utilize internal migration as a risk-reduction and adaptation strategy for sustainability purposes. And for long-term planning, the government needs to commence a national consultation to strategically identify and gradually mobilize resources to develop a second capital city for the benefit of current and future generations of Gambians.