Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

The majority of research on paid family/parental leave policies (PFL) comes from generous, longstanding European policies and (along with the smaller body of research in the US) focuses largely on labor market outcomes. As these are also family policies, it is important to consider their impact on women and the family via fertility as well. Previous research on PFL and fertility primarily utilizes large European and Australian expansions. This paper uses the introduction of a modest paid family leave policy in the United States. Using a Differences-in-Differences model and several data sources, this study estimates the effect of implementing California’s Paid Family Leave (CA-PFL) on individual and state-level fertility outcomes including the probability of giving birth in the last year, the probability of first or higher order births, the birth rate and total fertility rate, and average age of first-time mothers. I expect CA-PFL to increase births/fertility and decrease the average age of first-time mothers.