Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Social media is rife with memes and infographics which take up the position that one political party over the other has the best fiscal position by which to improve the financial situation of the entity they control. In 2015, one such meme circulated on social media which lauded the fiscal policies enacted by Minnesota’s then Democratic Governor, Mark Dayton, as compared to those of Republican Governor Scott Walker of neighboring Wisconsin. The meme touted Dayton's progressive policies which resulted in a very rosy financial picture and much improved outcomes, versus the conservative policies of Walker, which led to poor fiscal performance.

This paper asks the question, do the fiscal policies of one political party over the other lead to improved measures of fiscal health than the other? To attempt to answer this question, financial measurements and ratios were calculated from data obtained from the state’s Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports for the most recent two past administrations of the State of Minnesota; two term Republican Tim Pawlenty (2003-2011) and two term Democrat Mark Dayton (2012-2019). These measures, along with other select indicators which may relate to the fiscal health of a state were compared to each other over the course of the administration’s terms.

Additionally, the same data were obtained for the states of California, in which party control of the governorship was the same as the State of Minnesota during the time period (eight years of Republican followed by eight years of Democrat), Wisconsin and Iowa, in which party control of the governorship mirrored that of Minnesota and California during the time period (eight years of Democrat followed by eight years of Republican), and Oregon and Florida, which saw exclusively Democratic or Republican control of the governorship during this time period respectively. These measures were compared against each other over 16 years to determine if the data suggests that either party’s fiscal policies lead to better economic outcomes than the other.