Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Over 20,000 youth age out of foster care each year in the United States without achieving permanency and unprepared to be adults: 20% will become homeless, less than 3% will receive a college degree, and 50% will still be unemployed by 24 years old. Under the Fostering Connections Act and state legislation, 22 states extended their age-out age beyond 18 years old between January 2012 and December 2016. I exploit the temporal and geographic variation of extended foster care to provide some of the first national evidence of the effects of federally-funded extended foster care on the transition to adulthood. Data comes from the National Youth in Transition Database, a longitudinal survey that collects information on experiences and outcomes from foster care youth at 17, 19, and 21 years old, and is linked to the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System, which contains information about individuals’ foster care history. Using a linear probability model that controls for individual and state characteristics and a sample of 10,000 19-year-old foster youth nationwide, I find evidence that federally-funded extended foster care increases the likelihood that youth remain in foster care by 39%, reduces homelessness by 36%, and increases employment by 15%. Overall, these estimates are modest compared to comparison-of-means tests. The effects on college enrollment, disconnectedness (neither working nor enrolled in school), and incarceration are inconclusive. In general, the effects of federally-funded extended foster care on outcomes at 21 years old are smaller in magnitude and/or less precisely estimated. I also interact federally-funded extended foster care with individual experiences at 17 years old, such as homelessness and substance abuse, to better understand who benefits from this program. Federally-funded extended foster care appears to mitigate the detrimental effects of homelessness and substance abuse on college enrollment and disconnectedness.