Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

BACKGROUND: The ongoing movement of Recreational Marijuana Legalization (RML) has raised the concern over the “renormalization of smoking,” which may offset the long-time efforts of tobacco control in the United States. This study is the first to examine the specific impact of RML on cigarette consumption on an aggregate level in the States.

METHODS: Using data from the Office of Smoking and Health Interactive Data and from the American Community Survey from 2000 to 2017, we construct a synthetic control state to approximate the characteristics of Colorado, which passed RML in 2014. This synthetic state provides a more reliable counterfactual for the cigarette consumption of Colorado in the absence of RML.

RESULTS: There is no statistically significant difference between the cigarette consumption of treated and synthetic states related to RMLs. The validity and robustness of these results are demonstrated by the placebo-in-time and placebo-in-space tests.

CONCLUSIONS: We observe no significant short-term impact of RML on cigarette consumption in Colorado over the study period.