*Names in bold indicate Presenter
While social policy scholars have devoted an enormous amount of attention to the legislative changes of the 1990s, the question of whether welfare reform policies facilitated crowd-out of low-skilled male labor has been understudied. Using Bartik (2002) and Blank and Gelbach (2006) as guides to my modeling, I use two-stage least squares regression, a wider set of instrumental variables characterizing the components of state-level AFDC/TANF programs, and data from the Current Population Survey to more precisely estimate crowd-out of young, low-skilled male labor. More specifically, my first-stage analysis exploits the timing of AFDC waivers and TANF implementation – as well as the state-level characteristics of these programs – to estimate increases in labor force participation (LFP) for single-mothers with education levels at or below a high school level. Then, I examine crowd-out by using these predicted values in my second-stage equation, which evaluates LFP rates for young, undereducated single males aged 16-29 over the time period 1989 to 2002. Under the presumption that older males are a suitable counterfactual for the younger ones, I also estimate a second model where my left-hand-side variable is the difference in LFP between “older” (30-49) and “younger” (e.g. 16-29) undereducated, single workers. Preliminary findings indicate a statistically significant 1.2 percentage point (pp) decrease in the LFP rate for single males aged 16-29 for each 10 pp increase in LFP for single mothers. Moreover, I find that as the LFP for single females increases 10 pp, the LFP gap between older and younger, undereducated single male workers grows by approximately 2.5 percentage points. Findings of crowd-out are slightly larger and more statistically significant for single white males and, more importantly, not found in groups expected to be unaffected by welfare reform (e.g. college educated males).