This presentation explores the effects of employment on the recidivism outcomes of recently released former prisoners. The analysis uses a longitudinal dataset originally collected as part of the Transitional Jobs Reentry Demonstration (TJRD), an evaluation of prisoner reentry programs operating in four cities in the Midwest. The analysis controls for fixed differences between individuals to estimate the effects of within-individual changes in employment, earnings, and job stability on recidivism outcomes over time. The results of this analysis suggest important implications for the implementation of employment programs for former prisoners.

As the rate of incarceration has risen to historically unprecedented levels in the United States, so too has the number of individuals being released from prison. Currently, over 700,000 individuals are released from state and federal prisons each. Those leaving prison face a number of obstacles to reentering their communities successfully, and many are re-arrested or returned to prison for violating the conditions of their parole. In this environment, researchers, policy makers, and program practitioners have become increasingly interested in understanding what factors can lead to former prisoners’ successful reintegration into the community and avoidance of recidivism.

 One factor that has received focus is employment. The idea that employment can help former prisoners avoid returning to crime is supported by a number of theories of desistance, which posit various mechanisms producing this relationship. Most previous studies of criminal offending have found a negative correlation between employment and crime, but few studies have controlled well for spurious threats, and the best empirical analyses have produced mixed results. In addition, results from recent evaluations of transitional jobs programs have called into question the assumption that work, in and of itself, reduces criminal activity.

This presentation reviews recent evidence from random assignment evaluations of transitional jobs programs for former prisoners. Then it examines the extent to which short-term changes in employment, earnings, and job stability predict recidivism, controlling for other individual-level and time-varying variables. The results indicate that, controlling for time-invariant differences between individuals, lagged employment is negatively related to the odds of arrest in a given quarter. This relationship is strongest when earnings are relatively high, supporting hypotheses that criminal activity is most affected by high-paying and high-quality employment. The results for the effects of job stability on arrest are mixed.

Overall, these findings suggest that employment may help former prisoners avoid recidivating, but that substantial effects are only expected for those who work in jobs that are better than average for this population. These results also suggest some possible explanations for the main results of the Transitional Jobs Reentry Demonstration, in which transitional jobs programs were not found to have significant impacts on former prisoners’ recidivism outcomes. It may be that such programs do not provide jobs of sufficient quality or with sufficient pay to produce such impacts without additional program components. The presentation concludes by discussing other policy implications of these findings.