It is a commonly held notion that while urban environments provide a strong draw for young people, once these individuals have children, they head for the suburbs[1].  These young families are thought to move out of the city in search of better schools, bigger yards, and a less urban environment. However, journalists and politicians suggest that an increasing number of young families are staying in the city[2].  Such a trend has dramatic implications for social and cultural development within urban and suburban environments, as well as the evolution of the respective tax bases. 

Washington DC provides an example of a city undergoing material demographic shifts in recent years.  The median income has risen from $50,672 to $64,267 over the 1999-2010 period[3], and the segment of the population aged 20-35 has experienced net growth of 20.3% between 2000 and 2012, while the total DC population grew 10.5%[4] over the same period.  In 2012 alone, 43.2% of gross immigration was comprised of individuals aged 20-29[5].  The influx of individuals has been disproportionately composed of highly educated individuals.  Adults with an undergraduate degree or higher in DC have increased by over 68%[6], while nationally that number has increased by only 35%[7] over the same period.  In the context of these dynamic shifts, rapid urban revitalization, and a growing charter school movement, this study seeks to quantify and explain the emigration decisions of young families. 

Using a panel of income tax data from 2001 to 2012, which provides information about dependents as well as incomes, we will determine which DC residents had their first child during this time and whether they stayed in the city after having a child.  For those who left, we will calculate how long they stayed in the city before leaving.  In particular, we will be searching for patterns in the income distributions of individual taxpaying units.