Thursday, November 6, 2014
Ballroom B (Convention Center)
*Names in bold indicate Presenter
Macroeconomic calamities such as the Great Recession and more local disruptions like hurricanes and major plant closures remind us of the potential damage that can be inflicted on local economies, sometimes literally overnight. Economic devastation, mass migration, and rapid growth in demand for public services can strain a system to the point of collapse. Prior economic strategies taken by public policy leaders can affect economic structures in ways that enhance preparedness for these shocks when they come, but other polices can leave economies more vulnerable. Previous research at the county level shows that more diverse local economies are better able to withstand employment shocks but that this diversity comes at the cost of less rapid growth during times of prosperity. This paper builds upon that research by expanding the analysis of the role of the local employment structure to also examine the influence that the regional economy plays in terms of affecting the resilience of a particular county. The paper examines the extent to which the activities of neighboring economies may affect the experience and recommended policies of a given area. This potential policy interdependence has not been adequately addressed to date in the literature. Hierarchical and spatial modelling techniques are used to analyze municipal and county business pattern data from the mid-west region. Accounting for local structures and geographic realities allow for more accurate estimates and more informative policy recommendations regarding improving the resilience of economic systems.