Termination is an under-studied part of the policy process, in large part because a lack of data hinders the empirical analysis needed to draw generalizations about its causes and consequences. As described by deLeon (1978), termination can happen to functions, organizations, policies or programs, with functions being both the broadest in scope and most difficult to end completely and programs the most narrow and easiest to terminate. These different layers pose challenges to studies of termination, because termination at lower levels may result in responsibilities being shifted to higher levels. For example, organizations may be terminated, but functions remain. Programs may be abandoned, but policies continue. Such situations may represent successions rather than real terminations.

This study contributes to the extant literature by examining how the termination of a program affects government function. Specifically, does program termination lead to a complete abandonment of a government function, resulting in a meaningful change in implementation, or does it only pose a symbolic threat to the continuation of a function? The context of the investigation is the termination of local membership in ICLEI-Cities for Sustainability and its potential impacts on the continuation of sustainability efforts in U.S. cities.

ICLEI USA is a nation-wide organization of local governments and has been an important driver of local sustainability initiatives. It prescribes a specific process for increasing community sustainability and provides technical assistance for doing so. Having an active ICLEI membership has often been treated as synonymous to cities having a serious commitment to pursuing sustainability.  After a steady increase for nearly a decade, ICLEI USA reached its largest size in 2010 with just over 565 city members. By 2012, however, this number had dropped over 20 percent to approximately 450 cities. While the decline in membership indicates the termination of this specific local sustainability program, it is unclear whether or how cities’ termination of ICLEI membership affects the survival and continuation of their other sustainability actions and initiatives.

This study uses data collected via two surveys sent to local government officials in US cities with populations over 50,000. The surveys were administered in 2010 and early 2014, and provide data on the status of implementation for a large number of local sustainability actions. It utilizes difference-in-differences models to assess the impact that the termination of the ICLEI program has on local government sustainability functions.  Specifically, we compare the changes in sustainability efforts across three groups of cities: those that were not ICLEI members during the study time period, those that remained members throughout, and those that were ICLEI members in 2010 but had terminated it by 2012.