Young adults move away from the rural United States to areas that offer more options for education, employment, marriage, and cultural activities. Studies of the rural brain drain have described the people who leave as having more human capital than the people who stay and argue this is detrimental to rural communities. However, it is not known how characteristics of a rural community affect the life decisions of young adults. This study uses a two-stage least squares instrumental variables regressions to estimate the effect of changes in the local economy in nonmetropolitan, farm-dependent areas on young adults’ decisions regarding mobility, education, employment, and marriage.

I combine data from the American Community Survey, the National Agricultural Statistics Service, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. I use variation in the price of agriculture products to predict local proprietor income. I find that increases in proprietor income lead to increased rates of school attendance and outmigration, decreased rates of marriage, and no impact on rates of military service for young adults.