Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

The success of any Pay for Success (PFS) demonstration depends upon an effective intervention and a strong evaluation that can accurately measure outcomes and financial impact. This presentation is based on an analysis of the eleven PFS projects currently underway in the U.S., which includes systematic assessment in terms of research, evaluation and evidence. The presentation will focus on the strength of the evidence base for the interventions and the design and methods used for PFS evaluations.  The analysis concludes that the research evidence for some of the current PFS demonstrations is weak, and that there are a number of strengths and challenges in the evaluation designs, including issues associated with control groups, data collection and outcome metrics and methods used to determine potential success payments.  The study includes recommendations for strengthening the research foundation of PFS demonstrations.  This research was conducted by experts at the School of Public Health, University of Michigan, with funding support from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.