Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

We present trends in several measures of deep (i.e. below 20% of medians) and extreme (below 10% of medians or $2 dollars/day) poverty in the U.S. from 1993-2014. We employ leading international standards in income measurement, incorporate taxes and transfers, and correct for the underreporting of major welfare programs. Specifically, we augment the Census Bureau’s March Current Population Survey with adjustments from the Luxembourg Income Study and the Urban Institute’s TRIM3 model. In 2014, we estimate that at least 5.76-6.97 million Americans were deeply poor and at least 1.47-3.54 million were extremely poor. We find a substantial increase in deep poverty from about 1.5% in 1993 to 1.81-2.19% in 2014. From 1995-1996 to 2014, deep poverty increased 64-82%. Our estimates of extreme poverty reveal considerable fluctuation, and most measures peaked in 2007 and/or 2014. However, the results do not show a clear overall trend in extreme poverty and most measures were not higher in 2010 than 1993.We also demonstrate that previously reported dramatic increases in extreme poverty partly result from omitting the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Ultimately, we argue these estimates of levels and trends in deep and extreme poverty are more valid and reliable than prior alternatives.