Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Public expenditures targeted to children can help ensure that children receive what they need to reach their full potential. Nutrition benefits, housing assistance, and public health insurance help guarantee children are well fed, housed, and healthy, while investments in early education and public schools promote learning. Investments in children can positively influence childhood well-being and long-term social and economic outcomes, and increased understanding of how childhood circumstances affect lifelong outcomes has led to more public support for investment in children.

However, spending on children has not always received priority in the federal budget. In recent years, about 10 percent of the federal budget has been spent on children through federal programs such as Medicaid and school lunch and through refundable tax credits such as the earned income tax credit.

This analysis examines trends in public spending on children over time and compares projections of federal spending on children under current law with projections that assume the president’s proposed 2019 budget were enacted in full. Following the methods of the Urban Institute’s annual Kids Share report, we determine which programs aid children, their actual spending from 1960 to 2017, and the share of program spending going to children each year. We then apply these shares to two sets of federal spending projections prepared by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO):

1. Baseline projections for fiscal year 2018-28 spending under current law.
2. CBO’s “An Analysis of the President’s 2019 Budget” for estimates of fiscal year 2018-28 spending under the administration’s proposals.

If the president’s 2019 budget were to be fully adopted, federal spending on children would be 6 percent lower over the next 10 years, compared with spending projections under current law. Spending in most categories would be reduced, with the largest proportional cuts in early education and care (26 percent) and education (19 percent).

Many programs, such as the Child Care and Development Fund, Head Start, school improvement, SNAP, housing assistance, and Medicaid, would see sharp funding reductions, and the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, the Social Services Block Grant, and other programs would be eliminated entirely.

The proposal substantially cuts spending on nondefense discretionary (NDD) children’s programs which includes many of the areas most often thought of as investments in children’s futures including early education and care and K-12 education. Additionally, the administration proposes reductions to federal outlays targeted at children in some mandatory programs including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which have been shown to be associated with positive outcomes for children later in life.

The children’s share of federal spending has already been declining and is projected to continue its downward trajectory, as current-law spending on interest payments on the debt and Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid consume a growing share of the budget. The proposed reductions in the president’s 2019 budget would further squeeze the resources spent helping children reach their full potential.