Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

The natural resources and fast shipping lanes of the arctic circle are becoming ever more accessible due to the ever hotter climate. Higher temperatures over the next century will have massive economic and security implications for not only the region, but the world. These strategic opportunities, however, are not straightforward, as Arctic Nations are now racing to claim territory and sovereignty over a part of the Earth with little to no regulation. At least, this is a popular consensus of hawkish policymakers, but is it the correct model to absolutely expect conflict? If so, what sort of conflict, and to what extent? This research seeks to describe predictive models of conflict between arctic nations based on 1) historical, resource-based conflict patterns 2) recent changes to hard security preparations and militarization in the area and 3) classic international relations theory. Having established both norm-heavy and norm-light conflict models, policy recommendation for lowering conflict tension and appropriate security counter-measures are prescribed.