Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Turf rebate incentive programs have recently been a popular tool used by water providers to promote behavior that will lead to water conservation and a more sustainable future in drought sensitive areas. While these programs have seen various levels of success and criticism, there is still much to be learned. Drought, state mandated water reductions, and increased public awareness will continue to place turf rebate programs as an important policy tool in consideration of water conservation.

The focus of this research is to gain a better understanding of the household decision to apply, or not to apply, for turf rebate incentive programs. Specifically, I am interested in two main research questions: 1). What are the household level predictors of adoption in turf replacement programs? 2). What role, if any, do spatial patterns and peer effects play in the household application to turf rebate programs? The research design and methodology incorporate a combination of turf rebate application data, property data, and voter data; and will utilize spatial analysis via arcgis and a survival (time – to -event) analysis framework to analyze the drivers of participation in the turf removal rebate program instituted through the Metropolitan Water District in Los Angeles County California between 2013 and 2017. Similar research questions are often modelled via a multilevel linear regression model. This research institutes a time-to-event analysis framework to place a larger focus on the role that time plays in the participation of the program, and the required adjustments related to a one-time event in a panel data framework.

This research is part of a larger research project titled “Is the Grass Always Greener on the Other Side” which is being undertaken as part of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California’s World Water Forum College Grant Program. I am hopeful that this research project will provide insight not only into the recent turf rebate program in Southern California, but also provide valuable information for future implementation and design of incentive based programs. As the excitement of an El Nino year has begun to wear off, and California faces the likely continuation of drought like conditions and challenges with water distribution; conservation programs and new waves of incentive based programs seem to be highly likely in the future of water provision in California. This will create further need to evaluate past programs, learn from that analysis, and work towards the implementation of programs that will lead to a more sustainable future. Further research and a better understanding of the household decision making process related to "pro environmental" behavior is needed.