Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

The TANF participation rate has declined each year since 2011 to a historically low 27% in 2015. Differences between participants and eligible non-participants are not well understood. This analysis examines differences by demographic characteristics, economic context, and program rules for a subset of states using microsimulation and data from the 2013-2015 CPS.

1. Levels of program eligibility and participation are examined with respect to median income levels, state-level limits on years of participation and levels of general assistance. The analysis explores TANF participation by partitioning variance across demographic characteristics, economic circumstances, and state policy levers to understand how states’ prioritize program dollars and still make the program available to their most economically vulnerable residents.