Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

This paper examines how shocks affect change in the structure of a policy coordination network in urban water management. According to the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF), individuals are slow to change their policy-core beliefs, meaning beliefs related to problems, cause-and-effect relationships, and preferred policies. However, ACF literature has suggested that shocks can lead policy stakeholders to question and update their policy-core beliefs. This type of update, referred to as policy-oriented learning, is one mediating variable the ACF hypothesizes to drive policy change. ACF scholars have indicated, however, a need to improve ways to distinguish policy-oriented learning from other factors that can influence policy outcomes, such as shifts in power or resource exchange. The ACF assumes that policy stakeholders with similar policy preferences engage in non-trivial degrees of coordination to achieve shared policy goals. To that end, if shocks drive policy stakeholders to question or update their beliefs about effective and appropriate strategies, we may see not only policy-oriented learning, but also significant changes in the structure of the policy coordination network. This paper uses interrupted time series regression models to examine the effects of shocks on the network. Data are derived from a systematic web search of gray literature (i.e., non-peer-reviewed media, such as reports, newspapers, ordinances, and websites) on urban water programs and events in Tucson, Arizona that cover a timespan ranging from 2007 to 2017. Search terms for areas within the water domain are inspired by water-related areas of spending identified through the US Census of Governments. Ultimately this paper contributes to a better understanding of the drivers of policy network change and policy-oriented learning in the ACF.