Innovation Session: Moving Beyond Statistical Significance: The Basie (BAyeSian Interpretation of Estimates) Framework for Interpreting Findings from Impact Evaluations

Thursday, November 8, 2018: 1:30 PM-2:15 PM
Atrium - Exhibit Level (Marriott Wardman Park)

*Names in bold indicate Presenter

Participants:  John Deke1, Kriti Jain2 and Jonathan Gellar1, (1)Mathematica Policy Research(2)Administration for Children and Families

Description of Research: We cannot continue to misinterpret p-values and statistical significance, yet we also have to provide decision makers with a credible assessment of the probability that an intervention actually worked. With BASIE, evaluators will continue to provide answers to important policy questions based on evidence—not anyone’s personal beliefs. But now we can provide those answers in a way that is more intuitive, better aligned to questions of interest to decision makers, and less susceptible to misinterpretation. Although BASIE is not a panacea—the answers it provides are not perfect, and misinterpretations are still possible—we believe it represents a “significant” improvement over the hypothesis testing framework.

See more of: Innovation Session