Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Background: There is growing consensus that acting on the social determinants of health is essential to reduce health disparities. Yet, directly increasing the income of poor families with children has not been investigated as a strategy for reducing health disparities. Evidence from welfare experiments and natural experiments suggests that income supplements do indeed lead to improvements in children’s cognition, behavior, health, and academic achievement. However, the long-term effects of income supplements are unknown. To fill this gap, we use a microsimulation approach, based in US national, longitudinal data, to estimate the effects of unconditional income supplements on health risk behaviors into early adulthood.

Research Strategy: The Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (CNLSY) data serve as the population of reference for the simulation model. The simulations allow to predict health risk behaviors for each CNLSY participant, under simulated income supplement interventions currently used or proposed across different countries (e.g., targeted/universal child benefits, guaranteed minimum income, welfare payments). The input parameters come from a recent synthesis of the causal, short-term effects of income supplements on children’s development during childhood. To estimate long-term outcomes, we draw from the Social Genome Project (SGP), a dynamic life cycle approach developed by Brookings, Urban Institute, and Child Trends in the US. To assess effects on reducing health inequities, we calculate the reduction in health risk behavior gaps between SES groups.