Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Climate change is increasingly threatening to human livelihood and health, manifesting in several ways – including severe weather events. As tangible experiences that can often be nearly directly tied to climate change, I suggest that natural disasters in the form of severe weather lead to a jump in baseline perceptions of climate change, and that this jump varies from place to place, dependent on various factors aside from the original perception measure. Research has shown that extreme weather experiences can lead to increased engagement with climate change, without identifying the process by which individuals become more engaged. Other studies have shown direct experiences may have high influence on risk perception. Here, I link these two through testing whether the engagement is mechanized by increased risk perception.

This paper is examined through the theoretical framework of Punctuated Equilibrium Theory, using data from the Yale Program on Climate Communication and FEMA, along with census data and city demographics. I identify cities who have experienced natural disasters declared by the federal government and create pooled data to utilize a synthetic control method, in order to determine if citizens within the city have significantly different perceptions of climate change following the disaster. If individuals exposed to salient measures of an intangible concept such as climate change are more likely to perceive the risk, policy suggestions can be made to initiate action and engagement in communities that are likely to act.