There is an adage in the military that generals “fight the last war.”  We use strategies that either were or would have been successful in past conflicts and apply them to present conflicts.  This is also true in counterterrorism. However, little work has been done to determine what leads terror organizations to innovate, using new methods, techniques, and targets to carry out their attacks.  This paper uses data collected from two major terrorism datasets that identifies first movers and early adopters of terrorist methods. This paper will determine the characteristics of the countries where terrorists operate that lead them to innovate.

A key variable of interest is competition for resources, as measured by active terrorist organizations in a region.  The average organization faces 4.9 competitors in a year. Past studies have shown that increased competition increases success of terrorist operations.  Preliminary correlations also show that innovation is more likely to occur during high competition years.  Other demographic characteristics of the country experiencing terrorist attacks will also be considered to see if some types of countries are more susceptible to new terrorist methods.

This work has important policy implications.  If we find that competition for resources leads to innovation, then an effective counterterrorism policy is preemption, the removal of terrorist organizations.  Additionally, we can develop an index of countries that can behave naively, by using past strategies, because they are unlikely to face innovative methods.  Understanding who innovation in terrorist organizations is of utmost importance in developing effective counterterrorism strategies.