Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Tobacco use remains the leading preventable cause of death in the U.S. A long line of economic policy research estimates the impact of cigarette taxes on smoking. More recent tobacco control policies also emphasize regulations designed to make tobacco products less attractive or more difficult to purchase. We analyze retailer scanner data to estimate the impact of several New York City regulations: a ban enacted in 2010 on flavors in cigars; and regulations enacted in 2014 on cigar pack sizes and prices. Analysis of retailer scanner data shows that the flavor ban was highly effective: after ban implementation, flavored cigars sales quickly dropped from 5,500 units per week to essentially zero. To estimate what sales would have been in absence of the ban, we construct a counterfactual New York City using the synthetic control approach. We estimate that in synthetic New York City sales would have continued to grow over time, so by 2016 the estimated effect of the ban compared to the counter-factual is to reduce sales by approximately 9,500 units per week. We do not find evidence that the flavor ban induced many consumers to switch to non-flavored cigars, nor do we find evidence that consumers avoided the ban by making purchases from nearby jurisdictions. Next, we apply the synthetic control approach to the 2014 regulations. Compared to synthetic New York City, the regulations sharply reduced the number of units of non-flavored cigar sales; but it is important to take into account the changes in pack sizes to estimate their impact on the public health goal of reducing tobacco product use.