Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

This paper studies the effects of legislation in Brazil that banned the carrying of concealed weapons nationwide in 2003, and provided for a voter referendum to ban owning of concealed weapons 22 months later. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find that in the wake of the law gun-related homicides decreased by 10.8%, with the reduction especially pronounced among young black males living in high-crime areas. Other crimes involving guns (robberies) also declined, while crimes that did not involve guns were unaffected. Enrollment in adult education courses disproportionately increased in areas that saw the biggest drop in gun-related crimes. Economic benefits are estimated to exceed $3 billion. Analysis of the subsequent voter referendum, which was defeated by a wide margin, shows higher voter turnout and stronger support for the concealed weapons ban in the areas that had experienced the greatest decline in gun-related homicides.