Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Demographers were surprised by 2000 Census data showing that Mexican migration patterns to the United States, after remaining stably channeled into Southwestern border states for nearly a century, had dramatically shifted toward states with little or no history of Mexican immigration. Nearly two decades hence, demographic understanding of this migratory shift remains incomplete.

Employing new population data that includes an indicator of migrants' legal status, this paper contributes to our understanding of the "new destination" shift by examining the size and legal status composition of migration flows into new, and away from traditional, destination states between 1995 and 2000. Mexican migration flows into new destinations, especially states like Georgia and North Carolina, were overwhelmingly composed of migrants directly from Mexico (as opposed to internal migrants from elsewhere in the U.S.) who were substantially younger and more likely to be both male and unauthorized relative to flows into more traditional destinations.

Multivariate models of migration destination choice indicate that young, male unauthorized migration to new destinations in the American Southeast was driven largely by two demographic and labor market factors: a sharp increase in jobs in non-durable goods manufacturing coupled with a substantial decline in the low-skilled native-born population between 1990 and 2000.