Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Young adulthood is a time of transition which poses particular challenges for youth who are homeless or at risk of homelessness, including those exiting foster care. The instability of being homeless puts youth at greater risk of many poor outcomes, including physical and mental health conditions, decreased prospects for education and employment, justice system involvement, and recurring future homelessness. As a result, connection to relevant housing resources and services are critical to ensure that young adults have the opportunity to succeed.

Given that there are limited housing resources, it is important to match youths’ needs with available housing placements and other services. Although each housing resource requires eligibility, there is currently no system in place in New York City to prioritize individuals for specific housing programs based on their characteristics or needs. Better aligning youths’ needs with relevant housing resources can help young adults become and remain stably housed, leading to better lifetime outcomes.

This study provides a better understanding of the housing trajectories of young adults who exit foster care and residential programs for homeless young adults, including emergency shelters and transitional living programs. Using administrative data to follow a cohort of young adults, this study documents which housing resources are used by youth and assesses which youth may be suited for supportive housing or other specific housing resources. The study also aims to develop typologies of youth based on service utilization patterns.

The study uses administrative data to follow a cohort of 19,963 young adults, from ages 18 through 21, who exited foster care or homeless services between 2008 and 2013. Subsequent service use after exit, including utilization of homeless services, jail, and supportive housing, was measured for one-, two-, and three-year outcome periods. Risk and protective factors for subsequent service use were also analyzed based on prior service use, demographic characteristics, and history of foster care.

The study found that within two years of exit, 63% of the sample did not return to either homeless services or have a jail stay. Of the remaining 37%, approximately 30% used homeless services or had a stay in one system, 7% used services in two systems, and under 1% used services in all three systems measured. A small percentage moved into supportive housing.

The study also found that several factors consistently increased the risk of future homelessness and criminal justice involvement: Multiple stays and longer stay durations in the justice system and/ or homeless services; utilizing services from multiple agencies; and multiple moves while in foster care. Additionally, having a subsidized exit from a system significantly decreased the risk of later service use.

The factors that increased the likelihood of later service use were not found to decrease the likelihood of success in supportive housing for individuals who had been placed. Using these factors to prioritize housing resources may help better match youths’ needs to services without decreasing the success of the program. These factors can help shape policies and tools to prioritize youth for housing resources, including supportive housing.