Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

In recent years, many states have adopted, or sought to adopt, policies focused on the elimination or restructuring of teacher tenure laws. These policies have been based on the premise that, due to tenure restrictions, ineffective teachers have been allowed to remain in the classroom. They further suggest that by reducing the protections that tenure affords, administrators can better align employment decisions with job performance and therefore increase the quality of the teacher workforce.

While aligning demand-side employment decisions with job performance makes theoretical sense, it ignores any possible supply-side employment decisions teachers make in response to the loss of tenure. If supply-side decisions in response to the loss of tenure are based on a teacher’s own effectiveness, the net effect on the overall quality of the teacher workforce could be different than if only demand-side factors are considered. This might work in two ways. First, higher-performing teachers might be more attracted to systems that can reward teachers based on proven effectiveness rather than longevity. This might draw higher quality teachers into and retain higher quality teachers in the labor force. This would shift the quality distribution of the teaching workforce to the right. However, it is also possible that higher performing teachers, who likely have better alternative labor market options, choose to leave because tenure loss creates uncertainty around non-performance-based dismissals. This would then cause an initial drop in the overall quality of the teacher workforce before any demand-side decisions could be made.

Using data from Louisiana from 2008 through 2016, this paper studies the supply-side employment decisions of teachers in response to state tenure reform in 2012. Specifically, we examine if the attrition rates of highly effective teachers change post-tenure reform at differential rates when compared to those of ineffective teachers. We also examine these differences across various subgroups of teachers including early and late-career, STEM certified, SPED certified, and geography.

Preliminary estimates suggest that overall, contrary to the results expected by reform advocates, “effective” teachers (as measured by teachers’ contributions to student achievement) exited at higher rates post-tenure reform than their less effective counterparts. Additionally, we find evidence that highly effective early-career teachers left at greater rates than less effective early-career teachers. These results suggest that policies aimed at reducing the barriers to teacher dismissal may cause initial supply-side responses of teachers that can undermine attempts to improve the overall quality of the teacher workforce.