Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Intra-city phenomena such as gentrification and displacement are often observed, understood and studied quantitatively at the neighborhood spatial scale. Yet, neighborhoods are made up of households and individuals who through their actions guide the trajectory of a neighborhood. This paper analyzes the extent, timing, and quality of household moves in neighborhoods where an amenity – in this case, a new rail transit station – is introduced. Is there inequality in mobility: which moves represent upward mobility and which represent displacement? What household characteristics are associated with an upward move, which with displacement?

Previous mobility choice literature has uncovered numerous covariates correlated with mobility, including life course and employment events, socioeconomic, educational, and ethnoracial characteristics (e.g., Clark & Davies Withers, 1999; South & Crowder, 1997; van der Vlist et al., 2002). In this paper, we examine whether households are more likely to move in a transit-oriented neighborhood (TOD) after a new rail station is introduced, controlling for the covariates previously found in the literature. This analysis will also confirm the previous findings on mobility covariates in the Los Angeles County context. Additionally, we examine the timing of the move relative to the introduction of the rail station amenity. We measure mobility using a unique dataset of tax filers in Los Angeles County over 21 years at the block level.

To assess move quality, we look at the outcomes of these residential moves: Do these moves constitute a relative improvement in welfare (i.e., upward mobility) or a displacement to worse neighborhood? We operationalize this measure by comparing public school quality in origin neighborhoods versus destination neighborhoods for households who move. Multiple studies have found that school quality capitalizes into neighborhood housing prices (e.g., Kane et al., 2006; Haurin & Brasington, 1996). School district catchment areas in Los Angeles County are time-stable measurement devices and annual school quality measures are available from the state of California.

This research uses combines unique datasets to illuminate germane research questions on the inequality of mobility. Analyses using these datasets contribute to data-driven decision-making and policy development in improving outcomes for households and neighborhoods.