Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

This paper modeled the proximate determinants of rice outputs and depths of water tables in 27 Indian states during 1980-2010. Dynamic random effects models were estimated by maximum likelihood at the state and well levels. The main findings from models for rice outputs were that temperatures and rainfall levels were significant predictors and the relationships were quadratic with respect to rainfall. Moreover, nonlinearities with respect to population changes indicated greater rice production with population increases. Second, depths of water tables were positively associated with temperatures and negatively with rainfall levels and there were nonlinear effects of population changes. Third, dynamic models for in situ water depths in 11,795 wells in unconfined aquifers, accounting for latitudes, longitudes and altitudes, showed steady depletion. Overall, the results indicated population pressures on food production and environment in India that need to be tackled via long-term healthcare, agricultural and water policies.