Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Ballot Measures for Land Conservation. This study examines the use of direct democracy to finance open space and conservation programs of municipalities. US municipalities are relying on the ballot box to obtain approval for municipal bonds and tax financing for conservation. Those initiatives have been useful to municipalities that have natural resources available, but where growing populations are putting pressure on those resources.

The use of ballot measures for conservation is crucial in metropolitan areas, where natural resources are declining, particularly in the context of rapid urbanization. Thus conservation referenda are being increasingly held across municipalities. The need for natural resource conservation is prompting governments, civic organizations, and communities to employ ballot measures for natural resource conservation.

Prior literature suggests a theoretical linkage between financing a public good by taxation or by debt. Municipal bonds are typically employed to support capital projects for open space, land, parks and recreational areas, whereas tax mill levies tend to be used for operating programs. Bonds and tax mill levies can be complementary mechanisms by which a municipality invests in open space while using tax proceeds to pay for debt obligations. The role of tax and debt financing for land conservation is therefore explored in this study.

Event History Analysis. The unit of analysis is a US municipality as defined by the Census Bureau. Given this unit of analysis, the central source of data will be municipal-level ballot initiatives for land conservation. Our research strategy is an event history analysis of local finance referenda. Event history analysis provides several benefits. First, it allows us to capture the probability of passage of local finance referenda. Focusing on this outcome of interest, our event history analysis incorporates a range of independent and control variables. After an event history model is specified, the outcome of interest—passage of conservation referenda—can be tested for its factors of influence.

We report data on ballot measures for land conservation over the last fifteen years. Data for the outcome variable are compiled from the conservation initiatives database of the Trust for Public Land. The data are pooled for three intervals of time: 2000, 2005, and 2010, thus exploring how alternative factors influence the outcome of interest. We study this outcome through an event history analysis, where the probability of referendum passage is modeled based on those alternative factors. Data for those factors of influence are included using a range of demographic and institutional sources.

Implications for Conservation Policy. Based on our preliminary findings, we discuss implications of this research for conservation policy and finance. Our research examines the role of municipal initiatives and referenda for conservation, in the context of direct democracy in the states. Conservation research emphasizes the distinctive role of land resources in an increasingly urbanized society. Our study contributes to this research program by highlighting the instrumental role of local public finance in conservation policies and management.