Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

This article emphasizes the need for broader approaches for formulating evidence-based policies for mitigating the effects of climate change especially in the contexts of agricultural decisions, and population health and migration. Constraints imposed by rapid population growth in developing countries for achievement of Sustainable Development Goals are appraised. First, evidence is presented on “unwanted” fertility using the data from demographic surveys in India for the periods 2007-08 and 2015-16. Second, comparisons are made for India during 2002-2016 for average well depths in 495 districts and terrestrial water storage anomalies assessed via GRACE satellites for 274 1x1 degree grids using estimated parameters from dynamic random effects models. Third, migration patterns especially of the highly educated from 39 sending countries to OECD countries during 2000-2010 are analyzed using dynamic random effects models.

The main findings were that population growth of over 33 million people during 1980-2010 in six of the Indian states was significantly associated with groundwater depletion. Second, 200,000 square km resolutions of the data from GRACE satellites were coarse in comparison to the data on average well depths in the districts. Third, total fertility rates were significantly associated with higher emigration rates for the highly educated in sending countries to OECD countries. Overall, the empirical evidence suggests that reducing unwanted births in developing countries, higher resolution of remote sensing data on terrestrial water storage, and harmonizing patterns of migration to OECD countries will enhance global sustainability and well- being.