Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

For over a decade, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has formed partnerships (287(g) agreements) that allow local police to enforce immigration law by identifying and arresting undocumented residents, among other actions. Several empirical studies (e.g., Kostandini, Mykerezi, & Escalante, 2014; O’Neil, 2013; Parrado, 2012; Watson, 2013) have examined the impact of these partnerships on the presence of undocumented residents, Hispanics and foreign-born individuals using data with self-reports of immigrant and citizenship status from the American Community Survey (ACS). However, the evidence from these studies is mixed.

This study presents new evidence on the impact of ICE partnerships by focusing on the measured enrollment of Hispanic students in U.S. public schools. We examine these questions using county-year panel data from 2000 to 2011 when these partnerships first proliferated. Specifically, using data acquired from DHS through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests (Rugh & Hall, 2016), we identify the counties in which a law enforcement agency applied for an ICE partnership as well as those counties where applications were approved. We estimate the impact of ICE partnerships on Hispanic enrollment and other outcomes in “difference in differences” (DD) specifications. We examine the identifying assumptions of this DD approach through “event study” evidence. We also estimate the impact of ICE partnerships on non-Hispanic enrollments as a falsification exercise and we synthesize these results in “difference in difference in differences” (DDD) specifications.

The data from universe surveys of school enrollment by Hispanic ethnicity may provide a more reliable indicator of the demographic impact of local immigration enforcement. In our study window, over 80 percent of unauthorized residents originated in Mexico and other Latin American countries. Additionally, roughly half of undocumented adults lived with their own children, most of whom were themselves U.S. citizens. Studies of student mobility suggest that causing “reactive” moves (i.e., those made in response to stressful, adverse events) or inhibiting “strategic” moves (e.g., purposeful moves made to improve a home, school or community situation) can be educationally harmful, particularly for Hispanic students and students who have moved before (Hanushek, Kain, & Rivkin, 2004; Welsh, 2017).

We find robust evidence that partnerships between ICE and local law-enforcement agencies led to substantial reductions in Hispanic student enrollment (i.e., a 7.3 percent reduction overall but one that grew to about 10 percent within two years). These reductions in Hispanic student enrollment appear to be concentrated among the youngest students. Based on this evidence, we estimate that, during our study window, ICE partnerships displaced more than 300,000 Hispanic students (i.e., by encouraging them to leave and discouraging them to arrive). In contrast, we find that ICE partnerships did not have statistically significant effects on non-Hispanic enrollments, pupil-teacher ratios, or the percent of remaining students whose household income makes them eligible for the federal National School Lunch Program (NSLP). We conclude by discussing the relevance of our evidence for the recent expansion of local ICE partnerships under the Trump Administration.