Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

A growing body of work aims to estimate the impact of promise programs, with varying policy designs, on student outcomes (Carruthers and Fox 2016; Andrews, DesJardins, and Ranchhod 2010; Bartik, Hershbein, and Lachowska 2015; Daugherty and Gonzalez 2016). However, these studies have yet to investigate how a common type of local promise program—a last-dollar, merit-based, and narrow program—will shape student outcomes. In this study, I estimate the effects of Tulsa Achieves, a narrow, merit-based, last-dollar program, on credit accumulation, GPA, and degree attainment. Utilizing a regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences approach, I estimate the local average treatment effect of Tulsa Achieves for students along the high school GPA threshold as well as the average treatment effect based on administrative data from Tulsa Community College (TCC) for 2005-2015 cohorts. The analysis reveals mixed findings, with positive and significant effects on GPA and transfer to four-year colleges in the regression discontinuity analysis and null effects on persistence and completion. On the other hand, the difference-in-differences estimates indicate that Tulsa Achieves eligibility increases credit accumulation, persistence, and the likelihood of graduating with a bachelor’s degree within five years but reduces the likelihood of transferring to a four-year college. The implications of these findings are discussed in light of the growing interest among state and local officials in implementing promise programs, and the emerging discussion on the importance of policy design in shaping outcomes.