Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

In the recent decades, gentrification has brought tremendous change to urban America. Cities like Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington, DC, Houston, Los Angeles, and Portland are examples of cities that have witnessed considerable gentrification over the past decades. Research on understanding the effects of gentrification on existing residents of communities is vital to informing equitable community development strategies. Educations, specifically public schools are an example of neighborhood amenities critical to residents, yet little is known about the education outcomes of children growing up in gentrifying neighborhoods (Cucchiara & Horvat, 2009; Kimelberg & Billingham, 2012), especially using large, longitudinal datasets.

I propose to expand upon existing research by exploring the impact of gentrification on school and student outcomes in one of the fastest gentrifying cities in the U.S., NYC. I aim to explore the following research questions:

1. What is the effect of gentrification on short and long term academic outcomes of students?
2. What is the effect of gentrification on changes in the demographic composition of schools attended by students living in gentrifying neighborhoods (School segregation or integration)?

To answer these research questions, I bring together data from several sources. I utilize longitudinal, individual-level administrative records on grades K-8, from 2008 to 2015 obtained from the NYC, DOE. Student administrative data contain demographic and program characteristics, scores on state math and ELA exams, and, for SWDs, disability classifications and primary assigned services. In addition, the data include residential address, zip code and census tract of students, along with their designated school in their attendance zone. This is complemented by data from the New York City School Survey to get to the school environment indicators. Lastly, I use census tract data from the United States Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to proxy for gentrification in neighborhoods, comparing 2006-2010 with 2013-2017, and use the difference between the two-time points to develop metrics of tract-level gentrification.

I use logistic and fixed effects models to test whether changes in academic outcomes are associated with gentrification. Preliminary results find significant positive effects on students’ math scores and a reduction in absenteeism for children living in gentrifying neighborhoods (between 2008 to 2015) compared to those in persistently low-income neighborhoods. Further analyses conducted to understand difference by residential displacement, i.e. children who stay in the same neighborhood (between 2008 to 2015) compared to those who move neighborhoods. I also conduct an intent to treat (ITT) analysis, comparing the composition of schools’ students actually attend to what they would experience if all students attended their zoned school.

The findings from this paper should help in understanding the impact of gentrification on the academic trajectory of low-income children, and allow policy makers and school districts to target policies that benefit the most vulnerable of the students. Public school districts with high levels of concentrated disadvantage students need to ensure that efforts to bring higher income families into the system do not reinforce or heighten the unequal distribution of public educational resources (Joseph and Feldman 2009).